Even if the European Union successfully navigates its internal divisions and approves the sanctions against Israel, the outcome could prove to be a Pyrrhic victory—one where the costs and negative consequences of the win outweigh the benefits.
A successful vote would undoubtedly be a landmark moment for the EU’s foreign policy, demonstrating a newfound unity and resolve. However, this unity might be fragile and achieved at the cost of deep and lasting resentment from the member states that were outvoted, potentially poisoning future cooperation on other issues.
The relationship with Israel would be shattered, possibly for a generation. A sanctioned and alienated Israel would be far less likely to cooperate with Europe on intelligence sharing, counter-terrorism, or regional stability. The EU could win the battle over sanctions but lose its ability to be an effective and influential actor in the Middle East.
Furthermore, the move would cause a major rift with the United States, which would almost certainly oppose the sanctions. This transatlantic discord could spill over into other areas of cooperation, from trade to the response to Russian aggression, weakening the Western alliance at a critical time.
Finally, there is no guarantee the sanctions would even achieve their primary goal of changing Israeli policy. The EU could find itself with a broken relationship with Israel, a strained alliance with the U.S., and a more divided union, all without having stopped a single bullet in Gaza. This is the perilous risk of a victory that could ultimately prove hollow.