The Trump administration, in its pursuit of a trade deal with China, may be tempted to offer a concession on Taiwan. However, any economic agreement secured through such a trade-off would likely prove to be a “Pyrrhic victory”—a win that comes at such a great cost that it is tantamount to a defeat.
The strategic cost of abandoning Taiwan would be immense. It would shatter U.S. credibility in Asia, embolden a strategic rival, and destabilize a region vital to American economic interests. The long-term damage to U.S. influence and the security of its supply chains would far outweigh the short-term benefits of lower tariffs or increased soybean exports.
Moreover, such a deal would be built on a foundation of bad faith. A China that is willing to use coercive tactics to achieve its geopolitical goals is not a reliable long-term economic partner. Any trade concessions won from Beijing would be subject to the same kind of pressure and revisionism as soon as the geopolitical situation changes. The deal would not be durable.
The political cost at home would also be severe. A bipartisan backlash in Congress could lead to new, tougher legislation on China, potentially unraveling the very trade deal the concession was meant to secure. The administration would find itself having alienated an ally and enraged Congress, all for an economic agreement that may not even last.
In the final analysis, the pursuit of a narrow economic victory at the expense of core strategic interests is a fool’s errand. The stability and security that the current Taiwan policy provides is a far greater economic asset than any specific clause in a trade agreement. A deal won by sacrificing that stability would be a victory in name only.