Faced with a choice between escalation and the status quo in the post-treaty era, Russian President Vladimir Putin has opted for the latter, at least for now. His announcement of a one-year adherence to the expired New START limits is a clear, if temporary, choice for stability over a new arms race.
Putin justified this choice as the most rational course of action in a “turbulent period.” He stated that it is “justified to try to maintain the status quo” to ensure “predictability and restraint,” signaling that immediate escalation is not in Russia’s perceived interest.
This choice for the status quo is, however, contingent on the United States making the same decision. Putin explicitly warned that Russia is prepared to choose escalation if the U.S. does, stating that the policy is only “viable” if the strategic balance is not disrupted.
The Russian leader also presented this shared choice as a gateway to diplomacy. He suggested that a mutual commitment to the status quo could create the stable foundation needed for a “substantive strategic dialogue” to begin.
For one year, Russia’s choice is made. This decision places the corresponding choice squarely before the United States, whose actions will determine whether the status quo holds or gives way to a new and more dangerous era of strategic competition.