Every year, the list of Nobel Peace Prize nominees includes a few “blockbuster names”—famous politicians or celebrities whose presence generates immense media interest. Donald Trump is the ultimate blockbuster name. However, the history of the prize shows that the committee almost always bypasses the blockbuster in favor of a more sober, less famous choice.
The media and the bookmakers are drawn to the big names because they create a compelling story. A prize for Trump, or another famous figure like Pope Francis or Greta Thunberg, would be a global headline. This creates a public perception that these are the only serious contenders.
But the Nobel Committee’s track record tells a different story. More often than not, they award the prize to individuals or organizations that are relatively unknown to the general public until the moment of the announcement. Think of Nadia Murad, the World Food Programme, or Narges Mohammadi. These were sober choices, based on years of dedicated, courageous work far from the media spotlight.
This pattern reveals the committee’s core priority: to honor the work, not the fame. They use the prize’s platform to elevate unsung heroes and vital causes, not to add another trophy to a celebrity’s shelf. They see their role as educational, introducing the world to the real, often difficult, work of peacebuilding.
Trump, the blockbuster name, fits perfectly into the category of nominees who generate buzz but are ultimately passed over. The committee will look past the headlines and the betting odds and, as they so often do, make a sober choice that reflects their deep commitment to the substance, not the spectacle, of peace.