The true cost of tariffs is now evident, with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) highlighting the increased debt risks for developing nations caught in the crossfire of the trade war. The OECD has broadly lowered its global economic growth projections, anticipating a decline from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026, signaling widespread economic pressures.
The OECD’s latest outlook report underscores that “weakened economic prospects will be felt around the world, with almost no exception,” leading to “lower growth and less trade [that] will hit incomes and slow job growth.” While the entire global economy is impacted, the report specifically points to the heightened vulnerability of developing nations, many of which are already burdened by substantial public debt.
Adding to these concerns, the OECD warns that “protectionism” will lead to increased inflation, driving up the cost of goods and services. This inflationary pressure, combined with already high debt levels, presents a critical challenge for developing countries. The report explicitly states that “high debt levels and tighter financial conditions pose particular risks for developing countries, many of which have large debt refinancing needs in the near future.”
In response to these escalating risks, the OECD advises central banks to remain vigilant against inflation. Crucially, it also urges countries to “ensure that public debt is, indeed, on a sustainable path.” The report emphasizes that boosting investment is “instrumental to revive our economies and improve public finances,” but acknowledges the difficulty for highly indebted governments to finance such essential projects.